The following information was submitted:
Transactions: WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS
Transactions ID Number: 29-520
Full Name: Irina Khutsishvili
Position: Assistant Professor
Age: ON
Sex: Female
Address: 2, University st., 0143, Tbilisi
Country: GEORGIA
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E-mail address: i.khutsishvili@yahoo.com
Other E-mails: irina.khutsishvili@gmail.com
Title of the Paper: The Combined Decision Making Technology based on the Statistical and Fuzzy Analysis and its Application in Forecast's Modeling
Authors as they appear in the Paper: Irina Khutsishvili
Email addresses of all the authors: i.khutsishvili@yahoo.com
Number of paper pages: 11
Abstract: In the present work the combined Decision Making Technology based on the Statistical and Fuzzy Analysis is offered. This is a novel technology, which is based on the use of fuzzy-statistical methods. The technology involves two stages of decision-making. While considering the same object, the first three methods make a decision independently. These methods are – the Statistical Method of Fuzzy Grades' Analysis, the Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis and the Case Based Reasoning. Each makes a decision with its own approach to a problem and uses statistical and expert data. These statistical data are the existing historical cases of correctly made decisions with exhibited activities. At the second stage, the fourth method – an Expertons method – is used to make a final decision. The method works with the expert data only and chooses the most believable decision from those offered by the first three methods. Proposed Decision Making Technology is applied to a specific fo!
recasting problem – the decision-making on the possibility of earthquake occurrence. The present work describes the modifications of the "classical" variants of fuzzy-statistical methods, which became necessary to solve the specific forecasting problem and, also, introduces the Decision Support System, which was developed completely based on the proposed combined technology. The article provides an example clearly illustrating the work of the developed system.
Keywords: Decision support system, Fuzzy relative frequencies, Membership functions, most believable Decision, the similarity Measure between two cases, Experton, Possibility distribution
EXTENSION of the file: .doc
Special (Invited) Session: The Combined Decision Making Method based on the Statistical and Fuzzy Analysis
Organizer of the Session: 615-192
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