The following information was submitted:
Transactions: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL of ENERGY and ENVIRONMENT
Transactions ID Number: 19-143
Full Name: Amir Alikhani
Position: Assistant Professor
Age: ON
Sex: Male
Address: No 11, 4th floor No 27 Street No 16 Street Amirabad Ave, Tehran, Iran
Country: IRAN
Tel: 98 912 1000115
Tel prefix: 98 21 88007501
Fax:
E-mail address: dramiralikhani@yahoo.com
Other E-mails:
Title of the Paper: Proposed risk control in strategic management project for Qomrud River in Iran
Authors as they appear in the Paper: Amir Alikhani
Email addresses of all the authors: dramiralikhani@yahoo.com
Number of paper pages: 10
Abstract: One of the most important targets of the leadership is preventing and identification of the errors and frauds. The cost of the possible control measures must be compared with the probability of appearance of such fraud or error and the consequences. A sever flood was occurred on the 31 of March 2009 in the city of Qom, Iran, enhancing the climate change impacts of this event on the holly place of Hazerat Masome, situated in the bank of the Qomrud river with more than 1300 years last. It is shown that in some cases only 30 cm flood was enough to overturn the cars and caused dead. This will be presented with some interesting pictures taken by the author. Regarding climate changes the question was come to consideration that what is the most likely cost or duration for improving the river channeled and damaged infrastructures, or more usefully what budget or schedule do I need to ensure a 90% (or any other percentage) probability of success?. When you assign a cost or !
duration to an individual task within a project you are, in effect, trying to predict the future; you don't know what that task is going to cost or how long it will take until it has been completed. When you assign costs or durations you are simply making educated guesses as to what these will be. The evaluation system offers the leaders the required data necessary for the administration of that event. But it's still the job of those being in charge to create and launch such a system. Risk quantification is the process of measuring the probability of a risk and its impact on project objectives. Unlike risk assessment, risk quantification aims to produce verifiable numerical values. Risk quantification typically uses techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision analysis to determine the cost and schedule contingencies that will be required, based on the levels of uncertainty (= risk) in the various components of a project; to determine probabilities of completing w!
ithin a certain cost or by a certain date; to identify realistic proje
ct targets (cost, schedule, functionality, quality).
Keywords: Climate changes, Monte Carlo simulation, Risk quantification, Uncertainty
EXTENSION of the file: .pdf
Special (Invited) Session: Assessing Sustainable Adaptive Reuse of Existing Historical Buildings in Iran
Organizer of the Session: 618-449
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