The following information was submitted:
Transactions: WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICS
Transactions ID Number: 31-465
Full Name: Nataniel Greene
Position: Assistant Professor
Age: ON
Sex: Male
Address: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Kingsborough Community College, CUNY, 2001 Oriental Blvd. Brooklyn, NY 11235
Country: UNITED STATES
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E-mail address: ngreene.math@gmail.com
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Title of the Paper: Probabilistic Methods for Ranking Sources of Error
Authors as they appear in the Paper: Nataniel Greene
Email addresses of all the authors: ngreene.math@gmail.com
Number of paper pages: 10
Abstract: A classical method for ranking n potential events as sources of error is Bayes' theorem. However, a ranking based on Bayes' theorem lacks a fundamental symmetry: the ranking in terms of blame for error will not be the reverse of the ranking in terms of credit for lack of error. While this is not a flaw in Bayes' theorem, it does lead one to inquire whether there are related methods which have such symmetry. Related methods explored here include the logical version of Bayes' theorem based on probabilities of conditionals, probabilities of biconditionals and ratios or differences of credit to blame. We find that of all the methods described, probabilities of biconditionals and a corresponding notion of logical correlation coefficients provide a particularly attractive method for ranking blame for error and credit for lack of error which has the symmetry property we are interested in.
Keywords: Bayes' theorem, Error analysis, Probability of an implication, Probability of a conditional, Probability of a biconditional
EXTENSION of the file: .pdf
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How Did you learn about congress: J. Bernstein, KBCC Library, 2001 Oriental Blvd. Brooklyn, NY 11235 jbernstein@kbcc.cuny.edu
IP ADDRESS: 71.246.105.164
