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Transactions: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL of MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND METHODS IN APPLIED SCIENCES
Transactions ID Number: 19-410
Full Name: Bronislav Chramcov
Position: Senior Lecturer
Age: ON
Sex: Male
Address: Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Faculty of Applied Informatics, Nad Stránìmi 4511, 760 05 Zlín
Country: CZECH REPUBLIC
Tel: ++420 57603 5186
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E-mail address: chramcov@fai.utb.cz
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Title of the Paper: Heat demand forecasting for concrete district heating system
Authors as they appear in the Paper: Bronislav Chramcov
Email addresses of all the authors: chramcov@fai.utb.cz
Number of paper pages: 9
Abstract: This paper presents the results of an investigation of a model for short-term heat demand forecasting. Forecast of this heat demand course is significant for short-term planning of heat production and it is most important for technical and economic consideration. Weather forecasts are an important input to many heat demand forecasting models. In this paper we propose the forecast model of heat demand based on the assumption that the course of heat demand can be described sufficiently well as a function of the outdoor temperature and the weather independent component (social components). Time of the day affects the social components. The time dependence of the load reflects the existence of a daily heat demand pattern, which may vary for different week days and seasons. Forecast of social component is realized by means of Box-Jenkins methodology. We have studied half-hourly heat demand data, covering a three (four) month period in two concrete district heating syste!
ms (DHS) of the Czech Power and Heating company. Comparison of accuracy of the prediction model with inclusion and without inclusion of outdoor temperature for 12 and 24 hours-ahead forecast are presented.
Keywords: Box-Jenkins, Control algorithms, District heating control, Prediction, Time series analysis
EXTENSION of the file: .doc
Special (Invited) Session: Forecast of heat demand according the Box-Jenkins methodology for specific locality
Organizer of the Session: 646-312
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